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JOURNAL · 13 entries

Iran War

The war imposed on Iran, from my perspective. Here I note the most important headlines from my point of view, and sometimes write my reflections and emotions about the events and headlines.

  1. Middle EastYemen

    Iran and the US are no longer engaging in hostilities since last week, or essentially after Trump stated, “It’s time to diplomacy.” Meanwhile, Iran and Oman are negotiating the management of the Hormuz Strait, although they have not yet reached a concrete agreement. Reports suggest that a deal is imminent, but it doesn’t appear that an agreement will be announced in the coming days. CNN mentioned that once a deal is agreed upon and the Strait of Hormuz opens again, the blockade would be lifted. Iran clarified that the deal with Oman is not the same as opening the Strait; it is merely the management of the Strait, and they will only open it after the US accepts all of Iran’s security conditions for ending the conflict. These conditions seem as stringent as ever, but Iran appears more consistent and in a stronger position compared to a month ago.

    On another front, Houthi forces in Yemen are achieving some victories against official government, Saudi-backed militants. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan have entered into a mutual defense agreement with conditions similar to NATO. Egypt has shown significant interest in joining this alliance. I believe this should have happened much sooner, but I doubt this group will function effectively without Iran’s inclusion. In Gaza, Israel has surprisingly implemented Trump’s point plan peace plan and continues its operations. There is a cease-fire on Israel’s northern front, but they have attacked villages handed over to the Lebanese military, essentially breaking all sorts of promises as they often do.

    As always, I hope for the best, but I think we need to wait a week for any drastic progress in the situation.

  2. munitionsUSIranHormuz

    Tensions appear to have eased in recent days. Tehran has indicated that a deal regarding the Strait of Hormuz with Oman is closer, provided the United States does not interfere. Meanwhile, internal U.S. discussions reported by CNN and The Washington Post suggest that the U.S. has consumed 80% of its vital anti-air and THAAD missiles. This significant depletion of inventory has reportedly created a dangerous situation, leaving the U.S. potentially unable to defend Israel or its other allies.

    Interestingly, this coincides with the U.S. halting its aggression and shifting toward diplomacy, while still attempting to mask its munition shortages by threatening Iran with the largest attack since World War II. Concurrently, news outlets are reporting on Iran’s growing influence and control on the global political stage.

  3. escalationIranQeshmJordan

    The conflict again intensified by Iran showing in practice that the US does not dictate when the war ends! It ends when Iran says so. The main events in line with the escalation were as follows.

    • Iran fired ballistic missiles in a surprise attack at a US base in Jordan 12
    • US launched a ~2-hour retaliatory strike wave, targeting IRGC in southern Iran34 as a result killing civilians on Qeshm Island, including a two-year-old child5
    • Fresh Iranian missiles fired at Jordan on Thursday 3
    • One interesting event was that two American ships were hit by drones in Egypt waters. This significantly widens the war fronts. I am monitoring this one closely.
    • Diplomatic hopes fading as both sides resume tit-for-tat strikes after brief pause3

    Now we are waiting so that either the diplomatic efforts of Pakistan, China, and Qatar, takes us back to compliance with the MoU or not. And the hope as usual is that it would.

    Footnotes

    1. “Iran launches missiles toward U.S. base in Jordan” ↩

    2. “US says it intercepted Iranian ballistic missiles launched towards US” ↩

    3. “The US and Iran trade missile barrages as hopes dim for a quick resolution” ↩ ↩2 ↩3

    4. “US military says latest strikes on Iran last two hours, hitting dozens of targets” ↩

    5. “US strikes cause extensive damage on Iran’s Qeshm Island” ↩

  4. TrumpIsraelICCU.S.
    • Netanyahu, wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC), met with Trump to encourage continued conflict with Iran. En route to the U.S., his plane passed through the airspace of four ICC member states (Greece, Italy, France, and Canada), yet none took action. This highlights a contradiction in their advocacy for human rights. So much for their selective shouts and cries for Ukraine!
    • Additionally, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia jointly attacked Hashd al-Shaabi forces in Iraq in retaliation for recent drone strikes.
    • Diplomatic efforts are dim and wisdom seems lost. Though hope is battered, it still survives in my heart.
  5. UkraineRussiaIranCaspian SeaShipDrone AttackNorth KoreaWWIII

    Yesterday, Ukraine struck an Iranian commercial ship sailing in the Caspian Sea from Russia to Iran, killing an Iranian captain. Ukraine claimed the vessel was carrying weaponry from Russia to Iran and proudly took responsibility for the attack. Iran strongly condemned the strike and stated it reserves the right to retaliate, which seems likely.

    If Iran follows through on its threat, we are approaching a chaotic situation that brings us closer to a global conflict with clearly defined sides. Additionally, there are reports of North Korea becoming involved in the Russia-Ukraine war by participating on some Russian fronts. While it is true that Iran has sold drones to Russia that were used against Ukraine, it still seems unwise for Ukraine to open a new front that could drive Iran and Russia closer together—especially since Iranian missiles can cover the entire Ukrainian territory.

    This complex entanglement will take time to unravel before we truly understand the consequences. Still, let us hope the situation resolves in a way that benefits humanity.

  6. CeasefireTrump

    The U.S. has rejected the previous reports quoting their generals that the concern of low munition was the main cause of the American retreat. The White House officials claim that Trump has merely has ordered pause on the attacks for two weeks to give an opportunity to diplomacy.

    And yes, we have already seen what a Trump’s diplomacy looks like in the past. He has already misused negotiations as cover for previous attacks as a way to prepare for them. I am confident though that Iranian armed forces have learned their lessons and keep locked and loaded.

    still hope that this ends up in a real peace and prosperity for Iran and Iranian people.

  7. CeasefireTACO

    Amid reports in the U.S. media that Donald Trump has, for now, decided against escalating military operations against Iran, the White House stressed that “all options” remain on the table. It seems the yellow pig has run up against a few realities.

    The New York Times, Axios, CNN, and the Associated Press have all reported that, at least for the time being, Trump has decided not to intensify U.S. military strikes against Iran. According to these reports, the decision was made on Friday after officials raised concerns about dwindling stocks of Patriot air-defense missiles and the possibility that Washington’s Arab allies in the Persian Gulf could begin distancing themselves from the United States.

    Meanwhile, Iran’s military has confirmed that the Islamic Republic’s armed forces have also stopped their attacks since the U.S. halted its own strikes.

    The military spokesperson said the reason was that Iran’s strategy during this phase of the war had been retaliatory.

  8. GCCPersian GulfRetaliation

    Earlier this month, Bahrain and Kuwait secretly conducted unprecedented airstrikes against drone and missile storage facilities inside Iran. This operation marked their first direct retaliation against Tehran, signaling a significant shift in the region’s dynamics. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) also supported these strikes by supplying target intelligence and defensive air cover, illustrating a growing and coordinated military cooperation among Arab states as the broader conflict continues to escalate1.

    But I just wonder the audacity of these countries—or any other for that matter— to question, let alone condemn Iran for attacking these Persian gulf countries! They are part of this war since the very beginning. They have surrounded Iran by hosting the enemies’ military bases. Now they dare to complain and even take action about that? Well apparently they do. But I think they are smarter/more fearful than that. The most they will do would be to wait for a day that Iran is dying. They would come close, kick Iran’s dying body and run away.

    Today Saudi Arabia targets Ansar Allah in Al-Hadida region. What an entangeled situation it is becoming with the involvement of Houthies.

    Footnotes

    1. Bahrain, Kuwait Warplanes Struck Iran in Rare Gulf Retaliation ↩

  9. iraqkurderbil
    • Brent crude oil is volatile, up to the writing of this entry $95 down around 4% from yesterday. It needs some push I guess.
    • Iraqi sources reported the evacuation of a US Army unit from Baghdad’s Green Zone and their transfer to Erbil.

    Today, a heavy sense of foreboding hangs over the news. The calm before the storm is in the air, and dangerous military movements are taking shape across the region. I hope Iranian forces have prepared themselves adequately.

    The threat from armed Kurdish groups, acting as proxies for Israel and the United States on Iran’s western border, is not insignificant. Over the years, these groups have shown how easily they can be duped by a friendly gesture from the United States.

    Meanwhile, the United States has deployed a massive array of new military equipment, medical supplies, and matériel to the Middle East, particularly Jordan and Kuwait. An incident is likely to occur any day now.

  10. B-1 BomberIraqOil PriceHormuz
    • Crude oil prices are nearing $100 per barrel today.
    • Axios reports that the U.S. used B-1 bombers to attack Iran on Tuesday night1. To me, this sounds like a desperate move by the U.S., as if it doesn’t know what else to do. My other impression is that they might be running low on cruise missiles and are therefore being forced to use much less accurate methods, including carpet bombing. We saw this same pattern in the previous round, the 40-day war, when the aggressors against Iran resorted to older technology as the conflict approached its final days.
    • There have been no signs of diplomatic efforts in the last few days. Iraq’s prime minister proposed mediating between Iran and the U.S.—our prime minister responded, “We are not short on mediators; the U.S. is short on faith in negotiations!”2 —and that’s true.
    • There are signs pointing to increased tension and serious escalation over the next few days. The U.K. and France have withdrawn their diplomats from Iran, while Iran has threatened to bomb the ‘Zionist apartheid regime’ if the U.S. strikes the Kolang Mountain nuclear facility. The withdrawal of Western diplomats has almost always preceded some kind of severe escalation. On top of that, Trump told Channel 12, an Israeli TV network, in an interview that he is deciding on a large-scale, comprehensive attack on Iran.

    Footnotes

    1. U.S. deploys B-1 bomber as attacks on Iran intensify ↩

    2. Iraq’s Man in the Middle ↩

  11. BulgariaTrump
    • So far, the U.S. has murdered 53 Iranians in the latest round of hostilities.
    • The oil price reaches 92$ with a rising trend.
    • Bulgaria’s Parliament voted 136–13 to approve hosting up to eight U.S. KC-135 aerial refueling aircraft and 250 military personnel at Bezmer Air Base for Middle East operations1. Bulgaria downplayed a warning from Iran that hosting the tankers could constitute complicity in “aggression and war crimes,” insisting the role is purely logistical2. Then I guess, anyhow, Bulgaria could be a legitimate target for Iran—at least that specific airport, according to the customary law of neutrality:

    Under the customary law of neutrality, a state that allows a belligerent to use its territory for direct military operations can lose its neutral protections and be treated as a co-belligerent.

    • Trump is still threatening to attack Iran’s power plants and bridges, in addition to the new nuclear facility under Kolang Mountain. This guy just spreads hatred! What an unpleasant presence of a person in this world, and what a dark legacy.

    Footnotes

    1. Bulgaria’s Parliament approves hosting of US tanker aircraft for operations in Middle East ↩

    2. Bulgaria approves stationing of US tanker aircraft despite Iran warning ↩

  12. hopestrategy

    It seems like Iran is stepping up in the game again and strategically damaging the united state’s interests and bases in the middle east. There is only one way I might be satisfied with the end of this war and that would be the end of U.S. presence in our region. West has distabalized our lives for far too long. Enough is enough.

    On that note, some more positive analysis of the last few days on the video below.

  13. TrumpUS Killed

    Over the last two or three days, there have been whispers of another mediated negotiation for a new 10-day ceasefire. Although the media has been unusually silent regarding U.S. actions during this second series of conflicts, it seems that they are once again stepping up to fill the void and beginning to apply pressure on Trump once again.

    The last I checked today, oil prices have surpassed $90 per barrel. This is a positive sign, as it will mount pressure on Trump to halt the war. Two days ago, Iranian forces killed four U.S. military personnel. Following this, Trump grew highly agitated; characteristically, he threatened to inflict exponentially more pain for every U.S. soldier killed. His rhetoric reveals his underlying worldview: he considers the lives of four American soldiers—who are actively waging war—to be worth more than the 4,000 Iranian civilians who they killed during the conflict. It portrays a psychopath leader devoid of empathy, acting as a murderer of children.

    Still, I hold out hope for better days ahead.

Journal began Jul 2026