Spread of the war

Iran and the US are no longer engaging in hostilities since last week, or essentially after Trump stated, “It’s time to diplomacy.” Meanwhile, Iran and Oman are negotiating the management of the Hormuz Strait, although they have not yet reached a concrete agreement. Reports suggest that a deal is imminent, but it doesn’t appear that an agreement will be announced in the coming days. CNN mentioned that once a deal is agreed upon and the Strait of Hormuz opens again, the blockade would be lifted. Iran clarified that the deal with Oman is not the same as opening the Strait; it is merely the management of the Strait, and they will only open it after the US accepts all of Iran’s security conditions for ending the conflict. These conditions seem as stringent as ever, but Iran appears more consistent and in a stronger position compared to a month ago.

On another front, Houthi forces in Yemen are achieving some victories against official government, Saudi-backed militants. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan have entered into a mutual defense agreement with conditions similar to NATO. Egypt has shown significant interest in joining this alliance. I believe this should have happened much sooner, but I doubt this group will function effectively without Iran’s inclusion. In Gaza, Israel has surprisingly implemented Trump’s point plan peace plan and continues its operations. There is a cease-fire on Israel’s northern front, but they have attacked villages handed over to the Lebanese military, essentially breaking all sorts of promises as they often do.

As always, I hope for the best, but I think we need to wait a week for any drastic progress in the situation.